Capture Analysis
To make a determination of likely absorption, a capture analysis is required. This analysis forecasts the amount of floor space that the target retail and other uses would occupy in Plainfield.
Using the estimate of retail sales per location and applying the national average sales per square foot for each category, an approximation of the sizes of the retail facilities can be achieved. While the national figures are a good starting point, discounting the results by a factor applied to a Plainfield location is warranted. Given that a downtown location for retail is often outperformed by a placement along highways or major shopping center location, a conservative factor of 33% has been applied to the results as shown in the table below:
From Task 1, the total available retail space within the 10 major housing developments totaled 20,080 sf. The sizes of vacant retail space varied from 1,700 sf to 4,200 sf. As shown in the table above most of the projected retail capture could be accommodated in the smaller retail footprints available in the housing projects except for Furniture/Home Décor. At 17,490 sf, the Furniture/Home Décor category is clearly a stand-alone facility requirement.
Using the estimate of fine dining sales per location and applying the national average sales per square foot for each category, an approximation of the sizes of the restaurant facilities can be achieved. As shown in Exhibit 37 (below), a fine dining establishment of 3,070 sf is capturable for the City of Plainfield.
In Task 5, the average size of a comedy club was 378 seats, and the median was 200 seats. Using a conservative 200 seats figure, the estimated range for a club-style venue is about 15 sf per person or an estimated 3,000 sf according to the industry standards.
In Task 5, the average size of a community theater was 524 seats, and the median was 200 seats. Using the conservative 270 seats figure, the estimated range for a theater-style venue is about 10 sf per person or an estimated 2,000 sf of total facility size.
In Task 5, the average hotel was 132 rooms, and the median was 389 rooms. Using the conservative 132 rooms figure, the estimated size of the hotel would be based on the industry average 300 sf per room plus a 20% common area factor (lobby, corridor, etc.) or a total of 47,500 sf.
In review of 41 retail brokerage listings in Union County, a total of 298,331 square feet of available space produces an average of $27.63 per sf. The typical size of retail establishments is 7,300 sf.
According to Chain Store Age, the retail vacancy rate in Northern New Jersey is forecasted to reach 3%, a record low. New Jersey’s combination of low vacancy, limited new supply, and strong rent growth makes it one of the most competitive retail markets in the country. Using the $27.63 psf annual rent figure, the 9 retail categories will produce monthly rents ranging from $1,500 to $40,300 as shown in the table (below)::
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